Looking Beyond the 60/40 Portfolio in an Era of Low Returns

I wrote earlier this year that the 60/40 portfolio is dead. Well, rumors of its death were not greatly exaggerated. The 60/40 portfolio that served retired investors so well over the past 30 years is gone… and it’s not coming back any time soon. As investors, we have to move on.

Rest in Peace 60/40 Portfolio

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While it’s true that a simple 60/40 portfolio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) is actually enjoying a nice run in 2016, up a little more than 3% for the year, don’t get used to it. The math simply doesn’t work out going forward.

Let’s play with the numbers. Back in 1980, the 10-year Treasury yielded a fat 11.1%, and stocks sported an earnings yield (calculated as earnings / price, or the P/E ratio turned upside down) of 13.5%. This implied a back-of-the-envelope portfolio return of about 12.5% per year going forward, and for much of the 1980s and 1990s that proved to be a conservative estimate. Both stocks and bonds were priced to deliver stellar returns, and both most certainly did.

But what about today? The 10-year Treasury yields a pathetic 1.6% and the S&P 500 trades at an earnings yield of just 4%. That gives you a blended portfolio expected return of an almost embarrassing 2.8%. [Note: The usual disclaimers apply here. These are not intended to be precise market forecasts.]

You know the refrain: past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee, at least with respect to stocks, that expensive assets can’t get even more expensive. It’s possible that the great bull run in stocks could continue indefinitely, however unlikely it might be.

But I can’t say the same for bonds. Starting at a 1.6% yield to maturity (or even the 4% you might find on a mid-grade corporate bond) you cannot have returns going forward that are anything close to the returns of the past several decades. Bond yields would have to go negative, and I don’t mean the (0.15%) we see today on the Japanese 10-year bond. I’m talking (5%) or (10%) or even more.

That’s not going to happen. Or if somehow it did — if investors got so petrified that they piled into bonds to the extent that yields went negative to that degree — then I would assume the stock portion of your portfolio effectively fell to zero at that point.

The bottom line here is that even under the most optimistic scenario, investors are looking at disappointing returns in a standard 60/40 portfolio.

So, what are investors supposed to do about it? They can’t just stuff their cash in a mattress for the next 5-10 years. Most of us actually need to earn a return on our money.

I’d offer the following suggestions:

Consider taking a more active approach to investing.

To the extent you invest in traditional stocks and bonds, don’t be a buy and hold index investor. Yes, low fees are great. But the fact that you paid Vanguard only 0.09% per year in management fees won’t really matter if you’re returns are still close to zero.

Instead, try a more active strategy, perhaps focusing on value or momentum. Or perhaps try a dividend focused strategy. With a dividend strategy, you can realize a cash return even if the market goes nowhere for years at a time.

Consider investing outside of the market.

If you’re willing to get your hands dirty, consider starting your own business or investing in a cash flowing rental property. Yes, there is more work involved, and there is the risk of failure. But there is also risk in trusting your savings to a fickle market when both stocks and bonds are both expensive by historical standards.

Consider a truly alternative asset allocation.

This final point is really my specialty. To the extent I can, I am eliminating traditional bonds from the portfolios of most of my clients and replacing them with non-correlated (or at least minimally-correlated) alternative investments. A standard 60/40 stock / bond portfolio might instead become a 50/50 dividend stocks / alternative investments portfolio.

Alternative investments” is a generic term that can mean just about anything. In practice, for me it has meant a combination of long/short strategies, options writing strategies, absolute return hedge funds, and liquid alternative portfolios.

Will a non-traditional portfolio like this outperform over time?

Frankly, I don’t know. No one does. We’ve never seen a market like today’s.

But to me, it’s the only move that makes sense. Taking the traditional path is a virtual guarantee of disappointment. Incorporating alternatives into the portfolio at least give us the potential for solid returns.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA is the principal of Sizemore Capital, an investments firm in Dallas, Texas.

Photo credit: Pheonix149

In Defense of Hedge Funds…

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Photo credit: Sean Davis

Hedge funds don’t get a lot of love these days. They’ve underperformed for years, and their fees — the standard is 2% of assets and 20% of profits — make them a pariah in the age of indexing and low-cost robo advisors.

Hey, I get it. The high fees and lousy performance of competing hedge funds was a major reason that I started a liquid alternative robo advisor with my partner, Dr. Phillip Guerra. We run a suite of risk parity portfolios that hold their own against comparable hedge funds… and we do it at a fraction of their fees.

Yet let’s not throw out the baby with the bathwater. While many — perhaps most — hedge funds add no real value and certainly don’t justify their fees, there are plenty of hedge funds that absolutely do add value and deserve every last cent. But how do you separate the wheat from the chaff?

Ask yourself the following questions:

Does the fund do something unique that realistically cannot be replicated in a cheaper and more transparent vehicle, such as an ETF, mutual fund or managed account?

Really dig deep here. If the fund is a long-only large cap fund, you should be skeptical as to whether the hedge fund structure is necessary. If the fund employs sophisticated hedges that would be hard to implement in a smaller managed account, then the hedge fund structure is probably justified.

Does the fund deal in illiquid securities that would justify the lack of liquidity of the fund itself?

Years ago, a hedge fund in the DFW area made a fortune buying idled planes from the major airlines. Needless to say, that sort of thing would be impossible to replicate in a mutual fund, ETF or managed account. It’s virtually impossible (or at least impractical) to securitize an airplane. On a similar note, in the past I have placed accredited investor clients in a fund that finances medical accounts receivable that might take two years or more to pay off. It’s hard to see a strategy like that working in a mutual fund that promises daily liquidity.

Does the fund have a strategy that would be fundamentally undermined by investor redemptions?

Think about corporate raiders like Daniel Loeb or Carl Icahn. These guys are known for amassing massive stakes in companies and then using their clout to force change, including booting out management that is underperforming. That only works if you have a stable pool of capital. Imagine Loeb attempting to take over a company and then having to back away with his tail tucked between his legs because he had a wave of shareholder redemptions.

When your advisor pitches you a hedge fund, you shouldn’t necessarily recoil in horror. I regularly incorporate hedge funds into the portfolios of my accredited investor clients when they fill a specific niche I’m trying to fill. And to date (knock on wood), I have yet to have a major disappointment on this front. I’ve lost plenty of money for myself and clients in low-cost ETFs and mutual funds, though I’ve never lost money (again, knock on wood) investing in a good alternative manager or hedge fund. I probably will at some point. You know the drill, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But I can credibly say that it hasn’t happened yet.

Before you invest a single red cent in a hedge fund, ask yourself the questions above. Hedge funds are certainly not for everyone, but if utilized correctly they can reduce portfolio volatility without sacrificing returns.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA is the principal of Sizemore Capital, an investments firm in Dallas, Texas.

This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as In Defense of Hedge Funds…